2024 Wrapped: Online learning in UK higher education
It’s been a year of turmoil in UK higher education at large, and as we approach 2025 there is little sign of that changing. Over the past year, the prevailing narrative has been one of decline: a decline in the number of people working in UK universities due to redundancies and job cuts, a decline in the sector’s overall financial health, a decline in international student numbers, and genuine concerns about the potential future decline in the number of higher education institutions.
Although UK higher education feels like it is in its own bleak midwinter, even in times like these, there are developments and new initiatives. If you only read the headlines, you might think the sector is defined solely by contraction and stasis.
Online education, in some ways, sits apart from this. It is viewed as both a critical new revenue stream during challenging times and an important element in the evolution of higher education provision and the audiences it serves. This has, to an extent, insulated it from the contraction affecting the broader sector, although there has been some turbulence this year, particularly evident in the financial performance and fortunes of certain online education companies.
Here are some of my key reflections on the past year in online learning within UK higher education and beyond.
University partnerships in online education
University partnerships with private companies remain a significant part of the online education landscape. For those familiar only with traditional on-campus provision, the extent of company involvement in the UK’s online learning market may come as a surprise.
This dynamic makes the partnerships between universities and private online education companies an important area of analysis, and 2024 has been another year of notable activity.
Broadly speaking, new partnerships established this year can be grouped into three categories:
Partnerships that enable new market entry
Partnerships marking a phase two for universities after the conclusion of previous partnerships
Smaller partnerships to complement or enhance an existing online education operation
This year has seen new partnerships across all three categories.
In terms of new market entrants, several universities have made strategic moves to enter the online education market for the first time. Institutions that may have previously offered only a small number of online degrees developed organically within faculties are now seeking to become serious players through partnerships with online programme management (OPM) companies. Examples of new entrants in the market include the University of Southampton partnering with CEG Digital and Roehampton University with FutureLearn.
A development that’s not new, but has become more pronounced this year is the number of universities transitioning from one partner to another. These moves often stem from a mix of factors, ranging from underperformance in their initial foray into online education to strategic shifts by either the university or the company. For example, Coventry University, who partnered with FutureLearn in 2017 to make a significant entry into the online education market, are now embarking on a new phase with Cintana Education. The partnership aims to “massively expand” (their words) its number of online students, with a strong focus on international markets. Similarly, Aston University and King’s College London are among those forming new partnerships following the conclusion of previous arrangements. There are also a small number of universities that have ended their relationships with online education companies and are exploring their next steps.
This year has also seen growth in more focused, additive partnerships that do not involve comprehensive, full-service OPM arrangements. For example, nearly 10 UK universities have partnered with FutureLearn this year to list their online degrees on its platform, including Falmouth University and the University of Salford. Other notable partnerships include Heriot-Watt University and the University of Huddersfield working with Coursera to offer specific degrees. In some cases, universities already engaged in OPM partnerships have added new partnerships for specific degrees or subject areas, these include the University of Wolverhampton and Learna.
While the partnerships between universities and online education companies in general can be somewhat opaque, new agreements tend to be more visible for obvious reasons. However, partnerships that have ended are harder to observe, but there have been several this year. Reasons for these terminations are varied and often nuanced. From the company side, factors such as acquisitions, financial challenges, and strategic realignments have played a significant role. CEG Digital are the most notable example of an OPM company that exited partnerships this year, with one of these with Queen Mary University being reported this year, albeit with some weird reporting that lacked knowledge of the real story.
Despite the number that ended, there has been a net increase in new partnerships. Given the number of universities actively exploring partnerships and the different stages they are at with that, next year will bring more new partnerships and I expect some existing relationships to come to an end. These shifts are largely driven by a mix of necessity and ambition: universities increasingly see entering the online education market as important, but many feel ill-equipped to compete or lack the resources to build in-house capabilities.
However, despite clear evidence of UK universities outsourcing some or all of their online learning operations, there has been continued recruitment to online education roles within universities this year. The two biggest recruiters have been UAL Online and King’s Digital, representing universities that are building their operations around a strategy focused either exclusively or partially on delivering online degrees in-house. Beyond universities recruiting for their online units, several institutions have continued the trend of appointing inaugural heads or directors of online learning, these include Swansea University and Goldsmiths.
The competitive online degree market
It doesn’t take a genius to deduce that the net result of all the activity I’ve described is an increase in the supply of online degrees from UK universities this year, resulting in a more competitive market. This growing competition is putting pressure on the market share of established university providers, with those lacking effective online education strategies and robust operations the most likely to suffer over time.
I continue to see evidence of universities that entered the market some time ago who seem especially vulnerable to challenges by new market entrants. This comes at a time when maintaining student numbers is critical for many institutions. This assessment is based on a noticeable lack of capability, clear strategies, and sufficient focus on online education. Universities relying on approaches rooted in how the online degree market operated several years ago may find that time is catching up with them.
Unsurprisingly, this heightened competition and increased supply are most evident in the online master’s degree market, which aligns closely with the audience traditionally served by online learning. However, there has also been some activity in the online undergraduate market, with institutions such as the London Institute of Banking & Finance (LIBF) and Aston University launching online bachelor’s degrees this year.
Assessing the level of demand, however, has been more challenging, primarily due to issues with UK higher education student data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). This year has seen a combination of delays and complications: already lagged student data was released over six months later than usual, data reporting changes have rendered year-on-year comparisons impossible, and there have been errors in the data followed by updates after publication.
Initially, the first publication suggested an increase in the number of UK-based students studying for online degrees during 2022-23, but these figures were later revised. If you compare the total number of UK-based students studying online undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in 2022-23 with 2021-22, there is actually a decline in numbers. However, given the various data challenges and changes in methodology, it’s hard to be confident in these numbers, and direct comparisons between years are no longer feasible.
That said, I think it’s reasonable to assume we are not witnessing a surge in demand for online degrees. Any growth is likely to be steady, following the patterns of recent years. Hopefully, in 2025, the data issues of recent years can be resolved, allowing for more robust and timely reporting on online student numbers.
Continued growth of sub-degree courses
Although online degrees remain the primary online course product in UK higher education, this year has seen an increase in what I would describe as sub-degree offerings. By this, I mean short courses, microcredentials, professional certificates, or whatever naming convention is currently in fashion.
This year, some universities have steadily increased their number of online sub-degree courses, while others have launched and built larger suites of courses. These include the University of Essex Online, St Mary’s University, and the London Business School, who introduced its LBS Online brand this year.
Overall, developments in online sub-degree courses remain inconsistent. Some are based on disaggregated, credit-bearing courses that may stack or have other relationships with degrees, while others are standalone and non-credit-bearing. For some institutions, activity in this area involves creating and launching a new portfolio of courses, whereas for others, it’s about consolidating and developing infrastructure to support such offerings for non-matriculated students.
It’s important to say that because there’s so much simplistic and head in the clouds stuff written about microcredentials that bears little resemblance to what’s happening on the ground. Ultimately, while there is increased activity in the online sub-degree market, it remains a messy and varied area, driven by multiple factors rather than any singular reason.
One policy area that could bring greater focus is the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE), which has survived a change in the English government. However, it has been further delayed and remains focused on funding courses at levels 4 to 6 (undergraduate level). If this were extended to sub-degree courses at the postgraduate level, it could create more obvious opportunities for online course development, though there is no indication of that happening yet.
In Scotland, we’ve seen the precariousness of relying on government policy with the Scottish Government cutting the Upskilling Fund. This fund, launched in 2019, supported universities in providing shorter, more flexible courses aligned with the needs of learners and businesses, many of which were online. Some Scottish universities had enrolled significant numbers of students in fully funded online courses, but with this funding now removed, the impact on both student numbers and course portfolios will be something to watch in 2025.
Beyond course products, there continues to be experimentation in online degree portfolios. Open, anytime enrolment for online degrees has been adopted by City, University of London (through their OPM partnership degrees) and the London Institute of Banking and Finance (LIBF), both of which launched suites of degrees on this basis in 2024. Also, UK universities partnering with Coursera have begun offering performance-based admissions for online degrees.
While much of what I’ve observed in online degree product development cannot be classified as radically new, it is interesting to see what is changing and why. I expect further online degree product developments in the coming year, driven by an increasingly competitive landscape.
Online education company developments
This year has once again seen online education companies in the news, with 2U receiving the most prominent and widespread coverage. In 2024, the company underwent rounds of layoffs, reported disappointing financial results, entered and exited a form of bankruptcy, delisted and went private, made another CEO change, and shut down its bootcamp operations. Yet, 2U is still standing and is in the process of rebuilding. It could also be argued that its most significant successes in securing new university partnerships have been in the UK, with the University of Birmingham and the University of Surrey partnering with 2U this year to launch online master’s degrees.
There have also been more acquisitions this year. The online programme management (OPM) company Keypath Education was acquired by its majority shareholder, the private equity firm Sterling Partners, and, like 2U, was delisted from the stock market. Udacity, a platform once central to the early MOOC movement of the 2010s, was acquired by Accenture, marking the end of an era.
Overall, 2024 has presented a mixed picture for online education companies. Some have faced high-profile or low-profile financial struggles that have led to negative consequences, including some companies having to exit partnerships.
Other companies that have undergone acquisitions or significant changes and are now in what could be described as rebuilding or renewal phases. Boundless Learning, formed from the acquisition of Pearson’s OPM arm, and Risepoint, the new brand consolidating Academic Partnerships and Wiley’s OPM arm, fall into this category.
Meanwhile, companies like FutureLearn, Higher Ed Partners, Coursera, and Skilled Education have increased their number of UK university partnerships. New partnerships have also emerged with companies that had either not previously operated seriously in the UK higher education online market or are now extending their scope. For instance, QA Higher Education launched a small number of online master’s degrees with the University of Northumbria this year.
The range of company choices for UK universities appears to be broadening somewhat. While some companies have stabilised their position this year, the growing competitiveness of the online student market suggests that volatility and risks associated with company performance and financial stability will persist. As a result, this playing field continues to be one that universities need to navigate with great care if they are looking for a partnership that delivers results and offers a stable, long-term platform.
Closing reflections
2024 has been another year of increasing focus on online learning from UK universities. This has been reflected in the increasing number of partnerships with online education companies and the growth of online degrees, sub-degree courses, and portfolios. All of this points towards intensifying competition for a market that does not show clear evidence of rapid or substantial short-term growth.
I believe this increasing competition is one of the key stories of 2024 and will remain so in the year ahead. It is likely to prompt more universities to explore new ways to retain or grow their market share, leading to product developments and other changes. These developments will be key things to follow in 2025.
More broadly, the UK higher education sector is really not in a great place, but online education—both as a potential new revenue stream and an evolution of university offerings—has been relatively insulated from the wider struggles. However, it will be interesting to see whether the financial difficulties and turmoil that persist into 2025 begin to affect online education, particularly if it is not seen as delivering results or if established players face increasing threats to their market share.
While recent years have seen more UK universities take online education seriously, 2025 and beyond is going to require more universities to get smarter and more strategic, and find their lane.
