Does online learning in India present a growth opportunity for UK universities?
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The recruitment of international students is one of the hottest topics in higher education right now. There are multiple reasons for this, including UK universities’ increasing financial dependence on attracting international students at significantly marked-up prices.
There’s also the impact of shifting government policies in the UK and other countries, making it progressively more challenging to sustain previous levels of international student recruitment. Together, these factors have led to a period of considerable turbulence in recruiting international students to on-campus degrees in the UK.
Inevitably, in these financially challenging times, universities are exploring alternative ways to reach and recruit international students. These efforts have largely focused on transnational education (TNE), which, simply put, enables international students to study with UK institutions while remaining outside the UK.
As a result, the number of TNE students has been growing year-on-year. The latest statistics from HESA show that the number of transnational students enrolled at UK universities grew by 33%, from 433,170 in 2019-20 to 576,705 in 2022-23. These figures also include online students based outside the UK.
One country that has recently attracted significant attention as a transnational student market for UK universities is India. This is partly due to new regulatory and policy changes allowing international universities to establish overseas campuses in India. In August this year, it was announced that the University of Southampton had been granted a licence by the Indian government to create a branch campus in the country, becoming the first UK university to do so.
Another, more recent announcement that has received less attention was funding awarded to the UK’s Quality Assurance Agency (QAA) from a new Department for Business and Trade fund aimed at unlocking export opportunities. The QAA will use part of the £470,000 funding it received to seek recognition for transnational distance learning provision in India. Currently, online degrees from international universities are not recognised in India.
This is a positive development, increasing the perception of growing opportunities for UK universities in India. However, one lingering question remains: what realistic opportunity does online learning present for transnational student growth in India?
India’s growing student numbers and the current picture
If you were making a simple student market sizing calculation for India, the numbers would be eye-watering. According to the All-India Survey of Higher Education (AISHE) report published earlier this year, there are 43.3 million higher education students in India—an increase of nearly 2 million in just one year.
However, the number of TNE students based in India studying at UK universities is much more modest. Their numbers have grown by 89%, from 7,950 in 2019-20 to 15,015 in 2022-23. For context, the country with the largest number of TNE students from UK higher education in 2022-23 was China, with 81,380 students.
Given the size of the country and its population, the opportunity for UK universities, particularly the higher-ranked ones, would appear to be considerable.
India’s journey towards growing recognition and acceptance of online education
When considering international student markets for online education, one key factor is the level of recognition and acceptance of this mode of study. Some countries have limited or no recognition of online degrees from both domestic and international providers, which can present a significant hurdle or even a dead end.
However, India has been progressing towards greater recognition and development of online learning. For a significant period, the regulatory stance on online education in India was restrictive, and recognition was limited. Since 2017/18, however, policies have shifted to become more supportive.
In 2018, the higher education regulator, the University Grants Commission (UGC), allowed universities to offer certificates, diplomas, and degrees in a fully online mode. Since then, the number of fully online courses and online students has increased.
According to a report in the Times of India, enrolment in online education grew by 170% between 2021 and 2022, from 26,000 students to 70,000. The same report highlighted an increase in the number of higher education institutions offering online programmes, rising from 42 to 58, and in the number of programmes, which increased from 237 to 345.
Online learning is distinct from open and distance learning (ODL) in reporting, likely because distance learning retains traditional characteristics, such as printed materials and regional study centres. But it’s worth noting that there are significantly more ODL students, with 2.03 million reported in 2021-22.
India also has a long-standing relationship with distance learning, most notably through the Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU), which was established by the Indian government in 1985. This was very much in line with the tradition of government-instigated large-scale distance learning institutions in other countries.
While policy towards online learning has become more favourable, there are still restrictions on the types of degrees that can be offered online. The following disciplines are currently prohibited: engineering, law, medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing, architecture, physiotherapy, applied arts, and any that a statutory or regulatory body might prohibit.
Nonetheless, recent years have seen significant progress in online education in India, and the potential for further growth is substantial. India is also home to several prominent online education companies and platforms, including Swayam, UpGrad, Simplilearn, and notable players such as Amity University Online.
Assessing India as a viable market for UK online degrees
However, despite the size of the potential market and the improved conditions for online learning, other key factors influence the scope of this opportunity.
The first and perhaps most important is price sensitivity. UK higher education has been conditioned for years to think that international student pricing automatically means heavily marked-up degrees.
However, this approach is less compatible with online learning. The type of international student who has the means to study abroad and the desire to relocate is not typically the main or traditional target audience for online education. So applying this pricing model to online education in India is likely to fail.
Another element of price sensitivity is the difference in average degree costs between India and the UK. Annual tuition fees for undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in India can range from under £1,000 to several thousand pounds. However, even the higher end of this range falls well below the UK averages.
Therefore pricing online degrees for international students not only conflicts with the current model, it flips it on its head, and in some cases requires lower prices to attract an international audience to online degrees.
Navigating taxation challenges for UK online education in India
Another factor that further complicates the challenge of competitive and affordable pricing is taxation. I’ve previously written about how different countries' tax policies affect cross-border online education, and this is indeed the case in India. Currently, the goods and services tax rate for online education services is 18%, which is applied to the fees of Indian students studying online at several UK universities.
These taxes significantly impact UK universities' ability to price online degrees at a level that is accessible and viable for a larger pool of students within the Indian higher education market. Although government funding towards the recognition of UK online distance learning degrees overseas is welcome, a focus on tax policy is also needed to support exports in this area.
Being competitive with pricing for the Indian market is likely to be a significant hurdle for many UK universities looking to India as a market for growing their online student base, as it is in other international markets.
Key challenges for digital infrastructure and access in online learning in India
There are also other challenges, such as digital infrastructure and experience. In general, many UK universities have some way to go in building a solid digital infrastructure that enables them to consistently offer a high-quality, robust online learning experience from enquiry to graduation.
This gap is even more pronounced when offering online learning in countries where the digital divide is significant, and experiences need to be designed with an awareness of connectivity and device accessibility challenges.
Key takeaways on online learning for UK universities expanding into India
There has been positive news for UK higher education and its potential to reach the Indian higher education market. The establishment of branch campuses and moves to gain recognition for UK distance learning degrees are steps in the right direction.
However, UK universities would be unwise to assume that online learning offers an easy route to accessing a vast student population in India. There are a range of challenges, with the recognition of online degrees being just one aspect.
Universities will need to become far more effective and strategic to develop an online education proposition for India that is appealing, accessible, and offers a high-quality experience. Fundamentally, this will involve creating an operation that can effectively balance optimal pricing to attract Indian-based students against costs – a financial equation that, for some, may not be feasible.
Other strategies and partnerships may present more viable routes. What is clear, however, is that while international markets offer opportunities for the export of UK higher education via online learning, this is far from straightforward and demands a dedicated focus, strategy, and approach.
