Should more undergraduate education be offered online?
Image by Free Creative Stuff from Pixabay
The UK’s higher education admission service, UCAS, recently reported application data following the main application deadline on 31st January 2024.
The data revealed several concerning trends: overall, the number of applications was down by 0.3%, marking the third consecutive year of decline. While applications from 18-year-olds increased by 0.7%, the application rate for this age group, that is, the percentage of 18-year-olds applying for undergraduate courses, fell to 41.3% in 2024 from 41.5% in 2023.
This last figure is significant because the Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects an annual increase in the number of 18-year-olds in the UK until 2030. So, a declining application rate among this demographic may suggest a broader decrease in interest and demand for undergraduate education. This trend is particularly troubling at a time when the UK higher education sector can scarcely afford a drop in demand and, arguably, needs to maximise the opportunity presented by demographic growth until 2030.
If this trend continues and the undergraduate degree route becomes increasingly less attractive, it will pose a huge challenge to higher education institutions (HEIs). Ultimately, if a primary target audience loses interest in what you offer, then something will have to give.
Double down or change?
At times, it seems the sector's default response to challenges around student numbers, is to intensify efforts to attract a larger share of the same target audience with unchanged offerings, in this case the same old, same old, archetypal on-campus degree.
Clearly, the factors contributing to a decline in application rates among 18-year-olds are complex and don’t yet pose an existential threat on their own.
The government’s negative stance towards the sector and its questioning of the value of an undergraduate degree have been cited as a factor, and that narrative is unlikely to help. HEIs are undoubtedly in an embattled position at the moment. However, the danger of being in that position is that it can lead you to an overemphasis on defending existing practices, at the neglect of internal evaluation and consideration of necessary changes.
The on-campus undergraduate degree is undoubtedly the most hallowed type of course in higher education. While those that suggest it is the vestige of a bygone era can rightly be accused of hyperbole, the way in which some courses are offered can seem misaligned with modern realities.
Having read a number of recent OfS quality assessment reports, it was particularly striking to hear of how rigidly orthodox undergraduate experiences were being offered to students and how those experiences were jarringly misaligned to their real lives and needs.
As the world and individuals' circumstances change, HEIs need to reflect and modify the types of experiences and courses they offer and that includes undergraduate degrees.
Adapting to changing needs and realities
Although, it would be easy to equate necessary change as simply a greater embrace of technology, in reality evaluating the way in which people have to commit to undertaking a degree is a better way of looking at this.
This includes considering the type of time commitment needed, whether and when travel is necessary, the need for relocation, additional costs beyond tuition fees, and how all these factors align with existing obligations and potential new ones that may arise as a result.
It’s about designing offerings more tailored to the needs of the people you serve, and in a way that works for them. In this respect, Dieter Rams gave a warning that higher education would do well to heed:
“Indifference towards people and the reality in which they live is actually the one and only cardinal sin in design”
In the past, the value and currency of a degree could make up for a shortfall in terms of a less than optimal experience, or high friction experience. But, the value of an undergraduate degree is now being increasingly challenged. Whether that’s through employers removing degree requirements or through a government that’s crushing hard for apprenticeships while ghosting degrees.
Online undergraduate education is underdeveloped
Online undergraduate degrees are certainly not a panacea, but they offer an alternative option for individuals and a different kind of commitment to obtain a degree.
Online undergraduate education remains undeveloped among many UK HEIs. As of the 2021/22 academic year, 70% of UK HEIs had no online undergraduate degree students, and 17% had a hundred or fewer online undergraduate degree students. While more UK HEIs are beginning to seriously develop online course portfolios, these are almost exclusively at postgraduate level.
I’ve previously written how online undergraduate degrees pose more significant organisational challenges than postgraduate degrees. But in many ways these changes offer spillover benefits and are usually well-aligned with directions of travel in terms of broader digital and organisational transformation.
While it is certainly the case that the online undergraduate degree market is not as mature or growing as rapidly as the online postgraduate degree market, it has been growing. The number of UK-based online undergraduate degree students has increased annually since the 2017/18 academic year.
In fact, based on data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for UK-based undergraduate degree students studying via online distance learning (over 3.5%) is greater than that of on-campus undergraduate degree students (over 2.5%). So, the numbers of online undergraduate degree students have been growing slightly faster than their on-campus counterparts.
In the UK, the release of HESA data for the 2022-23 academic year has been delayed. When this data is released it will be interesting to see how online undergraduate students numbers are developing. As we move further from the big percentage uplift in 2020/21, largely driven by the pandemic, it will become clearer whether the promising growth in UK-based online undergraduates continues on an upward trend.
More than one way..
What certainly seems to be the case is that changing times are exerting pressure on individuals pursuing undergraduate degrees through traditional means.
If, like many, you need to relocate for your studies, you'll increasingly struggle to find accommodation. This has been referred to as an existential student housing crisis. Since 2019, research indicates a decrease of 19,000 in available student houses and a reduction of 95,000 in available student bedrooms.
Undergraduate students are also likely to have less time to commit to a degree, whether that be study, travel and attending scheduled sessions. Because more undergraduate students are having to balance significant work commitments. A 2023 AdvanceHE and HEPI survey found that 55% of students are employed alongside their studies, and working an average of 13.5 hours per week.
It would be remiss of me to not mention issues such as digital and data inequality and the impact of cost-of-living pressures which have made it difficult for students to afford reliable internet connectivity, cover data costs for devices and acquire digital technologies to support their study.However, when the vast majority of options for studying an undergraduate degree require relocation and/or travel and do not easily accommodate combining work with study, these problems are likely to be exacerbated rather than alleviated.
Ultimately, increasing the availability of online undergraduate options is about offering greater choice and access. This is not about competition between traditional and online education or oversimplified narratives of online education being the future. Currently, the UK lacks diversity in how you can pursue an undergraduate degree across a wide range of providers, and in times of change and challenge, surely that needs to change.
