UK HE and international online distance learning: Analysing the latest TNE data
Image by Denis Azarenko from Pixabay
It’s not been a great year for data in UK higher education (HE). Firstly, the key annual UK HE sector data compiled by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) has suffered multiple publication delays. We’re now expecting to get data on the 22/23 academic year in August. The horse has already bolted by the time we usually get it in January for the previous academic year, but it’s well and truly over the hills and far away now.
Then there’s the data that the sector does have, which is mostly negative. This includes data on the financial health of many UK higher education institutions (HEIs), data showing a 44% drop in overall study visa applications in the first three months of 2024, and a drop in the percentage of 18-year-olds applying for undergraduate courses in 2024.
However, we’re not totally data-starved. HESA has recently released the Transnational Education (TNE) data for 2022-23. For those who aren’t familiar with UK HE lingo, TNE students are those who study for awards or courses of UK HEIs and study wholly overseas without coming to the UK.
This data set includes all internationally-based online distance learning students studying at UK HEIs (referred to as distance, flexible, or distributed learning). So while we’re lacking data on UK-domestic online distance students for 2022-23, we can at least explore the other main market.
What’s the overall picture?
This dataset includes a range of TNE provision, which, in addition to online distance learning, includes studying at an overseas campus, collaborative provision with partners, and studying for an award of a UK HEI while registered at another overseas organisation. This dataset is segmented into two main geographical categories: the EU and outside the EU, and then by the type of provision, e.g. overseas campus, collaborative provision, distance learning, etc.
The main headline from the 2022-23 TNE student data is that student numbers increased by 8% to a total of 576,705. By way of contrast, there were 2,862,620 HE students in 2021/22, which includes campus-based students (UK and international) and UK-domestic online distance students. So, TNE activity is not an insignificant component of UK higher education as a whole, comprising around 15% of overall activity.
TNE student numbers are split into approximately 15% EU students and 85% outside the EU students, which has been the trend in recent years. The other major split is between undergraduate and postgraduate students, and unlike campus-based provision, there are more TNE undergraduate students (66%) than postgraduate students (34%).
Unsurprisingly, the biggest absolute growth in student numbers has been seen in students outside the EU since 2019/20.
The most significant absolute growth since 2019/20 in terms of types of provision outside the EU has been in arrangements such as collaborative provision (65,000), students studying for an award of a UK HEI at an overseas organisation (39,000), and online distance learning (18,000). However, the fastest-growing type of provision in that time has been students studying at overseas campuses within the EU.
Who are the biggest UK HEI TNE players?
The top 10 UK HEIs in terms of number of TNE students as a whole are:
Open University - 48,805
University of London - 37,850
University of Liverpool - 22,645
Liverpool John Moores University - 21,780
Coventry University - 21,085
Cardiff Metropolitan University - 17,330
University of Nottingham - 16,010
University of Greenwich - 15,850
University of East London - 14,815
Middlesex University - 14,660
These ten HEIs have 40% of all TNE students. While there are a significant number of UK HEIs with TNE student numbers in the thousands, there are also nearly 80 UK HEIs that have between 0 and 500 TNE students. So, the spread is far from equal, and many HEIs are not seriously operating in the TNE market.
International online student market size and trends
In broad terms, the number of internationally-based online distance students has been increasing outside the EU, but has been declining within the EU. Since 2019/20, the number of online distance students outside the EU has increased by 18,000, while the number of online distance students within the EU has decreased by 4,000. Incidentally, of all the types of provision, the biggest absolute decrease in student numbers has been among EU online distance students.
As of 2022/23, there were just under 138,000 internationally-based online distance students. However, unlike TNE activity as a whole, there are more online postgraduate (PGT) students (58%) than undergraduate (UG) students (42%).
Between 2019/20 and 2022/23, there has been growth in the number of UG and PGT online TNE students, but the overall growth in both segments has been relatively modest.
This warrants some reflection, as for some, the online international student market is vast and untapped, offering UK HEIs significant revenue potential. While these trends don’t in and of themselves refute potential opportunities, they perhaps pour some cold water on the more ambitious projections that are pitched to UK HEIs.
International online student market by region
In terms of geographical regions, the largest proportion of internationally-based online distance students are in Asia (36%), followed by the EU (18%), and Africa and North America (14% each). The most significant absolute growth and growth rate since 2019/20 has been among online PGT students in Asia. The number of internationally-based online PGT students has also grown notably in the Middle East and North America during this time. However, online PGT provision is where the significant decline in EU students mentioned earlier has been wholly concentrated.
The trends by region in the number of internationally-based online UG students have been less eye-catching. However, all the main regions—Asia, Australasia, Middle East, North America, Other Europe, European Union, and South America—have seen growth, with Africa being the only region experiencing a slight decline.
Who are the biggest UK HEI online international student players?
The two biggest UK HEIs in terms of overall numbers of online TNE students are the UK’s two main online distance universities: the University of London and the Open University.
Unsurprisingly, given its legacy focus, the University of London is by far the largest of the two in the international online distance learning market, with a market share of 27%, having just under 38,000 students.
Over recent years, the five main incumbents in terms of student numbers have been the University of London, Open University, University of Salford, University of Manchester, and Heriot-Watt University. These HEIs have been among the top ten for a number of years.
However, since 2019/20, a number of HEIs have grown their international online student numbers significantly. The most notable is King’s College London, which has seen an increase of over 2,500 students between 2019/20 and 2022/23. This growth has been exclusively in postgraduate taught students.
Other HEIs that have experienced significant student number growth since 2019/20 include the University of Essex Online, University of Sunderland, University of Salford, University of Law, University of Sussex, and Arden University. While absolute growth has been most significant at the postgraduate level, there has been growth at the undergraduate level. The exceptions are Sussex and Salford, which had no internationally-based online undergraduate students in 2022/23.
There are private company partnerships at a number of these HEIs, including OPMs and online franchise-style provision, which undoubtedly play some role in that growth. However, attributing causality to student number growth is a nuanced business.
Perhaps the most significant variation in student numbers between 2019/20 and 2022/23 has been seen at the University of South Wales (USW). Instead of growth, it has experienced a substantial decline of nearly 7,000 students since 2019/20. This is largely attributable to the cessation of a private company partnership focussed on delivering online degrees to overseas students.
In this sense, USW follows in the footsteps of the University of Liverpool and the University of Leicester, which have experienced large declines in internationally-based online students, numbering in the thousands, in no small part due to the ending of partnerships.
Final thoughts and future directions
In many ways, this dataset continues a general trend in respect to online students at UK HEIs, which is steadily increasing numbers. While that is the picture as a whole, since 2019/20 some UK HEIs have grown international online student numbers significantly, highlighting growth potential.
However, there are many factors that contribute to successful growth in student numbers, and the number of students is just one measure. This data doesn’t highlight the cost to acquire students versus the fees HEIs receive. It does not highlight how successful HEIs have been in offering an excellent online learning experience, nor whether students have been supported to continue and complete their studies in good numbers. It’s easy to look at a market, observe the trends and growth, and make assumptions about your potential for success and demand for your programmes. However, there’s much more involved in being a HEI that successfully offers online education over a sustained period.
Given the current financial plight of UK HEIs and the slim chances of any short-term succour, there are likely to be more moves into the international online education market. UK HE is undoubtedly in a very different place from 2022/23 when it comes to international students. The introduction in 2024 of the ban on international students bringing dependents and the review of the graduate route have negatively impacted the campus-based international student market. As numbers reduce here as a consequence, the TNE market as a whole, including online distance learning, is a market that more HEIs are looking to.
Although short-term financial pressures are significant, I believe that online education should be thought of as a long-term investment, whichever market is being targeted. To use an analogy, this isn’t about making quick gains through day trading; it’s about investing in shares that yield returns over the long term.
I think we’ve reached a moment where online distance education should be a business-as-usual part of what all UK HEIs do in offering higher education opportunities to UK and international students. The risk, though, is that due to significant financial pressures, UK HEIs don’t approach online education in a strategic, long-term manner, which might lead to a failure to launch, or the kind of boom and bust in online international student numbers we’ve seen in the past.
While all the predictions point to the fact that demand for higher education is only going to grow internationally and UK higher education’s global reputation puts it in a good position, calculations that are made shouldn’t operate only at that simplistic level. What will differentiate UK HEIs going forward in online education will not be that they do it, but how smart and strategic they are in going about it.
