2023 Wrapped: Online education within UK higher education
As we approach the end of the year, I want to share some reflections on the past year as it relates to online education within UK higher education.
AI has dominated this year's higher education headlines, and the impressive emergence of AI in mainstream products is this year's standout story. However, the focus on AI in higher education has felt overdone at times, to the extent that one would be forgiven for thinking that nothing else happened this year.
In reflecting on a year so dominated by AI, the words of American author Robert D. Kaplan come to mind:
“A lot of..changes are so gradual they don’t even qualify as news, or even as interesting: they’re so mundane that we just take them for granted. But history shows that it’s the mundane changes that are more important than the dramatic ‘newsworthy’ events.”
The steady and continued growth in the importance of online education in higher education seen this year definitely aligns with this view.
When looking back at 2023, I have four main reflections that are, either directly or indirectly, related to developments in online education in UK higher education.
1. Financial pressures accelerate moves into online education
UK higher education has continued to face significant financial pressures this year, largely due to wider factors such as inflation, which has diminished the value of the student fees that universities rely on.
These pressures have highlighted the critical importance of universities meeting their student recruitment targets. The repercussions of failing to do so have become increasingly evident. Universities have announced budget cuts, redundancies and the scrapping of degree programmes that are financially unsustainable.
It seems these challenges will continue, as there appears to be no rescue on the horizon for a sector that is in financial dire straits. Government policy interventions, rather than helping, seem to be making matters worse.
This year the government has removed the right for international postgraduate taught students to bring dependents to the UK and has initiated a review of the post-study work visa. This visa currently allows international students to remain in the UK for at least two years after graduation.
These attempts to reduce net migration, further compound the financial challenges in the sector. The likelihood of universities receiving succour through the recruitment of international postgraduate students, who often pay higher fees, seems increasingly diminished.
The findings of the 2023 Chartered Association of Business Schools’ membership survey echoes this, stating that:
“Our survey highlights the challenges in recruiting international students against the backdrop of the government’s ban on visas for dependents of students, with 93% and 84% of respondents, respectively, anticipating an adverse impact on enrolments for postgraduate courses and MBA courses.”
This backdrop has been a driving force behind UK universities making moves into online education this year. There’s no dressing up the fact that for several universities these moves are purely seen as a way to develop a new revenue stream. The current challenging climate has both precipitated and accelerated moves into online education.
2. Growth in online education brands, operations and senior roles
This year has seen the launch of several new online education brands by universities, highlighting a growing prioritisation.
More UK universities than ever are seeking to set themselves up to develop and deliver online programmes and grow their online student numbers. Some, like the University of Nottingham Online have launched courses this year, while others are at a preparatory stage and will launch in 2024.
This trend has inevitably led to new partnerships with different types of online education companies, such as OPMs. Broadly speaking, the number of new partnerships mirrors the number in 2022. But, if it hadn't been for a couple of protracted and aborted partnership deals, there would have been an increase this year.
Another outcome of the increasing significance of online education for universities is the growth in the number of senior roles. Earlier in the year, I wrote about how over 40 new positions have been established in recent years. A considerable number of these were created in 2023, so there are now more Heads of, Directors, and Deans of online education or equivalent positions in UK higher education than ever before.
3. Online Education company turmoil and changes
Although not a new story, online education company turmoil and changes continued to play out in significant ways this year.
The headline grabbing news was the sale of two of the world’s largest online programme management companies (OPMs). In March, Pearson sold their OPM business Pearson Online Learning Services (POLS) to the private equity firm Regent. Then in November, Wiley sold their OPM business Wiley University Services to another OPM, Academic Partnerships.
The other headlines were taken by the large US company 2U, which is facing a financial crisis that will no doubt concern their existing and new UK university partners and the small number of UK universities planning to partner with them that have not yet announced.
Phil Hill’s detailed analysis of the company concluded that
“The company will likely survive, but it will undergo some significant changes from bankruptcy, from selling off assets, from additional layoffs, or more likely from some combination.”
This story will follow us into 2024, potentially seriously impacting the short to medium-term online education ambitions of their UK university partners.
Another key story was the continued evolution of FutureLearn. Following their acquisition in 2022, new leadership has started to take shape. CEO Andy Hancock left the company in March, and Ian Howell (formerly of HigherEd Partners) was appointed as the new Managing Director a few months later.
As I mentioned in my recent online education company analysis article, after being rescued from the mire they found themselves in, FutureLearn is now one of the few companies on a more positive trajectory.
Although 2023 saw more university and online education company partnerships, it was also notable for the number of partnerships that ended. To date, 10 partnerships between UK universities and online education companies have ceased this year.
However, as we have been at pains to point out on the Online Education Across the Atlantic podcast, don’t let that fool you into believing those that offer a very binary analysis of these things.
I’m confident that 2024 will see more new long-term OPM revenue share partnerships as well as unbundled partnerships and universities deciding to go it alone.
4. AI disappointments…
One of the major disappointments for me this year has been the discourse around AI. Personally I have encountered very few compelling and credible voices. At times and perhaps unfairly, it’s felt like this space is merely occupied by opportunists, wave riders, one-riff merchants or newly-minted experts.
Some of which have adopted mantras that could be paraphrased as “online education is broken and only AI can fix it.” Some of it comes across as a kind of a sort of pseudo-educational populism that you vote for in likes.
Unfortunately, in the UK, it feels like higher education has spent much of the year in a frenzy over the implications of generative AI on academic integrity and the threats it poses to traditional forms of assessment. Whilst those are valid and important things to grapple with, it’s been genuinely hard to find instances where AI has been used to improve educational experiences.
When I get asked, and when people ask me, about genuinely interesting work in learning design and online education involving AI, it’s been difficult to point to compelling work in this area.
I’ve also missed discourse that’s more rooted in today's realities. So much so, that earlier in the year it led me to write about how AI might impact asynchronous and synchronous online learning, with a deliberate focus on online education workhorses like quizzes, discussions, video, as well as subtle but important improvements such as video & audio quality and display options in video conferencing.
Undoubtedly, generative AI and other AI applications, if utilised wisely, have great potential to be used to the benefit of online education and learning design. I know that people are beginning to experiment in these areas, and I look forward to 2024 being a year less defined by the heddy combo of knee-jerk defensiveness and plastic influencers.
Instead, I hope it will be a year characterised by compelling and meaningful cases of AI’s impactful use across online education.
Summing up
Reflecting on 2023 in the UK, it has been a year in which online education has continued to rise in importance. There’s greater emphasis placed on it and a genuine range of new online education activity taking place in UK universities.
Although at times I wish some of the drivers were not so narrowly financial, the fact that there are more options for people to access higher education through online learning is a positive thing.
In 2024, more UK universities will continue to expand their online education offerings. However, it will likely be a bumpy path for some. Some will either struggle to adapt to offer and support a fundamentally different form of education for a different audience, and other may struggle to stand out in an increasingly competitive landscape.
There’s likely to be more upheaval and noteworthy developments in the online education company sector too. Things have not yet stabilised, but this could mean that those now in more stable positions might enjoy smoother progress in the coming year.
Ultimately, the path ahead for online education in the UK is one of more subtle shifts and ongoing developments, but year-on-year it’s playing an increasing role in reshaping UK higher education. I look forward to what 2024 has in store.
